There were a few highlight reel moments to choose from during DeRozan's heater of a first half, but becoming the first player in NBA history to hit buzzer-beaters on consecutive nights embodies the exceptional fit he has been in Chicago so far. But its now clear Sacramentos lofty position in the West is not a magic trick. The Cs currently sit as the +325 chalk, followed by the Milwaukee Bucks at +550 and the Denver Nuggets at +650. When the 2022-23 NBA season begins next week, our RAPTOR prediction model sees a league with a field of title contenders more wide-open than at any time in recent history. Speaking of wildcards, who knows what to make of the Sixers. Each time the Bucks appeared ready to start rattling off wins in the first half -- such as winning five of six games, including their West Coast swing earlier this month -- they followed up with a setback, dropping three of four heading into the break. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. Denver and Phoenix might be the favorites in the West, but expect resistance from the City of Angels. If they're not? Now, theyve added more star talent via a trade for Kyrie Irving. (Besides, Eastern Conference teams went 226-224 against the West anyway; the weak East is a thing of the past. Now, we know that the NBA has arguably the least meaningful regular season in all of professional sports, so perhaps those stats should count for relatively little when comparing the two teams. Most impactful moment during the season's first half: The immediate impact rookie Evan Mobley made upon arrival in Cleveland is the biggest reason the Cavs have transformed into a contender. Pivot point for the rest of the season: The Celtics have looked like one of the NBA's absolute elite teams for close to a month. RAPTOR sees the worst teams as very much the same ones from last season, with Houston, Detroit, Oklahoma City and Orlando projecting for the four worst records in the league. Both the Lakers and Clippers made moves up the NBA odds table in February and are now on a positive trajectory toward the playoffs. The Nets had all kinds of drama surrounding them heading into the break after trading Harden -- and enduring an 11-game losing streak -- but they finally appeared to turn things around as they headed into the break having won two of three, which included a 28-point come-from-behind win against the Knicks. From a mall parking lot altercation to a fight with a teenager during a pickup game, these are the allegations Ja Morant is facing. Must-see game left on the schedule: Mavericks at Wizards, April 1 (7 p.m. Thats why it foresees the Jazz as a play-in team despite their rather obvious intention to tumble in the standings. Chicago Bulls (+2100 . They also have to hope Rose can come back at a high level and stabilize New York's bench. Marc Finn and Andres Waters contributed research. Suddenly, the 76ers went from being down an All-Star and wondering how they would replace him, to reuniting Harden with Sixers president of basketball operations Daryl Morey, forming arguably the league's toughest 1-2 scoring punch with Embiid. FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: 9%. They have a deep rotation that hasnt been fully healthy and then shook up their rotational mix at the deadline. Dallas is currently +1600 to win the championship a significant upgrade from +2500, where they were before the trade. They estimate their chances of winning the title as 21%. But the market is bullish on a Lakers team that appears to be more rounded out, with the Lakers ascending up the table from +5000 at the end of January to +2800 immediately after the deadline moves. Brooklyn Nets (+260) 2. Denvers regular-season resume has been good so far. Caesars title odds: +1100 A healthy Nets squad with Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and Simmons comes to town for a showdown with Butler and Co. Pivot point for the rest of the season: The key for this veteran bunch is being able to stay healthy. ET): The Hornets are 2.5 games back of the eighth spot held by Brooklyn and are percentage points ahead of the Hawks for the ninth spot. They got even deeper at the deadline acquiring stretch big Mike Muscala from the Oklahoma City Thunder. It also could be a potential first-round playoff preview. So, what are we to make of the new-look Clippers? Pivot point for the rest of the season: What happens with Irving's playing time? This seems to be the approach taken by most Eastern Conference contenders. They've lost nine of their last 10 games since, including the two prior to the All-Star break in overtime and double overtime. Through it all, Klay Thompson has been playing at arguably an All-Star level, averaging 22.1 points a game while hoisting over 10 threes a game and hitting over 40 percent of them. Either way, the model gives Boston an 80 percent chance of winning the championship over Golden State, in very stark contrast to the betting markets which immediately installed the Warriors as pre-series favorites last week. FiveThirtyEight's 2022 NBA Finals prediction has Golden State with just a seven percent chance to win it all. After all, the last time Atlanta fired its coach in the middle of the season, it went to the Eastern Conference Finals. In the most recent update of its NBA predictions, FiveThirtyEight lists the Celtics as the team most likely to win the NBA Finals this season. The odds, provided by our partner, PointsBet, also like Golden States chances of defeating the Mavericks in the West finals more so than FiveThirtyEight, with the Warriors listed as heavy favorites at -225. With bench boss Mike Budenholzer in charge and Giannis Antetokounmpo a perennial NBA MVP candidate, Milwaukee is clearly capable enough to win a title this season. 1 But. As of Feb. 26, the Lakers have a 40 percent chance of making the 2023 NBA Playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight's projections . FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: 0.3%. Its common knowledge, of course, that sports are unpredictable -- especially in the volatile NBA where anything can happen in any game. The Nugs have the third-best odds to win the NBA championship, but there is still value in backing them. ET, NBA TV): This game could be a preview of what's coming at some point in May. The Sixers might have found their answer at backup center in the rugged P.J. In the meantime, lets take a look at how we see the standings shaking out in each conference. (Im personally higher than our player projections are on Kuminga.). The Bulls entered the break on a five-game winning streak on the shoulders of a hot-shooting DeMar DeRozan. Naturally, those acquisitions created a torrent of new betting action in Dallas and Phoenix, reshaping the balance of power in the West. Two days later, the Hornets topped the Los Angeles Lakers to improve to 28-22 on the season. Playoff and title projections: Dallas has been a less popular target than Phoenix but is still one of the top four favorites in the West. The Cavaliers, like the Timberwolves, are projected to see improvement this season but not join the group of title contenders despite trading for a star (in their case, Donovan Mitchell). However, that scenario seems less and less likely at this point. Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +4000 It's no surprise White has immediately become a fixture in Boston's closing lineup. The Rockets project far worse than the others at the moment, largely due to the sheer volume of youth in the rotation players who tend to take a while to improve and become positive forces. Luke Kennard adds elite shooting to the mix, and Memphis slew of young and willing defenders provide balance. NBA.com is part of Warner Media, LLCs Turner Sports & Entertainment Digital Network, *Translations are limited to select pages. The fact Erik Spoelstra and his staff were able to navigate through the tough times and continue to rack up wins set them up to be atop the East heading into the break. Derrick White Doesn't Produce Like NBA Superstars. Everyones A Favorite In Our 2022-23 NBA Forecast, shockingly low projection for Evan Mobley, as-yet-undetermined-length-of-time absence. All boast championship odds between 5 and 7 percent and are projected for between 49 and 51 wins with point differentials between plus-3.0 and plus-3.8 per game. FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: < 0.1%. The team has desperately missed Steven Adams, whos been out since Jan. 22 with a PCL sprain. The Suns were +1600 to hoist the Larry OBrien Trophy just one month ago, sliding to their lowest position since before the 2021 Finals appearance. Pivot point for the rest of the season: Atlanta starts with a tough slate after the break -- at Chicago, vs. Toronto, at Boston, vs. Chicago -- but at least the Hawks are trending in the right direction. NBA Championship Odds: Trade Deadline Shakes Up Betting Markets (March 1) Chase Kiddy breaks down how the NBA Trade Deadline has shaken up betting markets. NBA Championship Odds: Best Bet Milwaukee Bucks (+550) Don't forget the Bucks won the title in 2020-21, when they started the season at +550 in NBA championship odds, and took the Celtics all the way to Game 7 in the 2021-22 Eastern Conference semifinals. Theres likely nobody that misses Adams more than All-Star Ja Morant. Must-see game left on the schedule: Nets at Heat, March 26 (8 p.m. ET, ESPN): When Miami comes to town at the end of March, there will be less than two weeks to go in the regular season, making it a potentially massive game for seeding purposes for both teams. When we last saw them Toronto dropped two of its final three games before the break but has gone 18-8 since Dec. 31, revitalizing its season and going from a team hoping to get into the play-in tournament to one hoping to avoid it by finishing among the top six in the East. This NBA season is wide open, but only a select handful of teams can actually win the title. The expectations were high after the Knicks surprised the league and vaulted to the fourth seed in the East last year, but they have come crashing down to earth in a season filled with inconsistency -- especially on the defensive end. If you are having difficulty accessing any content on this website, please visit our Accessibility page. Well begin with the West, home of the defending champs. So this rematch should have a little extra edge. And multiple-time All Star Middleton, who averaged 23.6 PPG and 2.6 3PG during the Bucks' championship run in 2020-21 but was largely absent late in the 2021-22 season due to injury, is slowly . In five of the previous seven seasons, the eventual title winner came from the group of teams with 5 percent odds or better, so theres a decent chance we will be crowning one of those aforementioned squads next June though that doesnt narrow things down very much. Chase Kiddy breaks down how the NBA Trade Deadline has shaken up betting markets. teams in that category: the defending champion Golden State Warriors, the reigning Eastern Conference champion Boston Celtics and (in alphabetical order) the Atlanta Hawks, Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Memphis Grizzlies, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, Philadelphia 76ers, Phoenix Suns and Toronto Raptors. Browns Swiss Army Knife skill set has been welcomed. Caesars title odds: +5000 These are combined with up-to-date depth charts tracking injuries, trades, changes in playing time and other player transactions to generate talent estimates for each team. Must-see game left on the schedule: Bucks at Bulls, March 4 (7:30 p.m. The figures are updated daily, but with a 69-game sample size, the odds appear to be leaning the Clippers way in about 21,000 of the simulations. Caesars title odds: +50000 Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +10000 FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: 21%. The duo's working relationship ended at the trade deadline when the Mavericks sent Porzingis and the two seasons remaining on his five-year, $158-million deal to the Wizards. Below are the teams that have seen their odds change from just a week ago after the NBA Finals, most of which are minimal and not likely reflections of the draft. So yes, a pretty good case exists that splashy deadline trades often arent the best way to win a championship. At +550, the Celtics implied probability to win with these odds is 15.38 percent. Nets-Celtics, 7:30 p.m. Over his last 18 games, hes averaging 28.7 points with bonkers shooting splits (54.4/49.5/91.6). Finally, we have to talk about the race for the bottom of the standings in both conferences, which is sure to be impacted by the Tank-O-Rama for Victor Wembanyama. FiveThirtyEights 2022 NBA Finals prediction has Golden State with just a seven percent chance to win it all. While John Collins' recent foot injury that kept him out of the final three games of the break is something to monitor, the Hawks have shown they are capable of going on winning streaks under coach Nate McMillan both last season and this one. Giannis Antetokounmpo is nursing a right wrist injury, but Milwaukee reportedly dodged a bullet with the severity of that injury. 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