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Rural white America is principally Trump, and they are ripe for conspiracy theories. A lot of people think things are. The insulting back and forth really bothers me about any candidate, Myers said. We need to make ourselves energy independent again. Titchner, a Vietnam veteran, has been painting houses for 45 years and said he votes based on the candidate, rather than the party. He loves this country. About The Author. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. Plastic cups and straws also have been hard to come by because they require natural gas in their manufacturing process. I believe in what they call entitlement programs, Hamilton said. He was concerned about the situation in Ukraine. Itll be interesting to see who wins Sen. Soon, he lost his union membership because he had no money to pay the dues. The ongoing coronavirus restrictions seem to be nudging people to the right, but six weeks out from the election and with the October surprises still to come, the Keystone State could be the clincher for either candidate. Wood Countyaswith Ottawa County, its neighbor to the east along Lake Erieis filled with farm fields, is home to many military veterans (about 7,000 of them), and hasnt seen much expansion or change since the late 1970s or early 1980s. He says Democratic Gov. Jacobs said she absolutely intends to vote in person on Nov. 3. I think it worked out without me.. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. . Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. Only 1 of 17 bellwether counties went for Biden this year! They write that the electoral record shows that not only are bellwether counties poor predictors of who will win a presidential election, rising polarization means that their ability to predict long streaks of elections has been in decline over the last two decades. Im not happy with the way things are now. Because of supply chain issues, its also difficult to find parts, Miller said. Nothing has changed regarding the date of the May 3 primary election, Baumgardner said. John Hawker, a 74-year-old Port Clinton resident who grew up in Toledo, was sitting at the end of the bar and also weighed in on the state of affairs. And it can happen.. TERRE HAUTE, Ind.For well over a century, voters in Vigo County, Indiana, have backed the winner in almost every presidential election. I hope.. Finally, numerical bellwether scores for all 3142 counties in the US were computed based upon the number of . By Cara Ding. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high scoring counties, they said. Weve never done that before.. Competing for the Democratic nomination are John Cranley and former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. He worked for a tree service company for some years, but was laid off again. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. Epoch Times, Gateway Pundit, and EveryLegalVote.com show a different electoral vote count for two reasons: They exclude states with pending litigation or recounts, subtracting votes from. Myers works as an electrician and long supported the Democratic Party along with his union. Many of its residents include farmers, retirees who love to fish, and more than 3,300 military veterans. A number of fertilizer plants closed across the country last year due to natural gas shortages. For example, across seven elections, we would expect to see 28 bellwether counties. The median household annual income is approximately, In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Miller cited seeing some retail and light industrial development around the county in recent yearsa Bass Pro Shops store in Bowling Green, a 1 million-square-foot expansion for First Solar in Perrysburg in 2018, and downtown revitalization in Bowling Green. Since its founding in 1853 it has only got 13 out of the 37 extant elections right. They can try all they can to prevent whatever they want to prevent, but nature is going to run its course, no matter what, Tisdell said. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high-scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. Moreover, once we allow for bellwethers to have less than perfect records of success, the expected numbers of bellwethers increases much more rapidly than most (including us) would expect. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. He told The Epoch Times that hes facing workforce shortages and currently only has 18 cookshalf of what he normally would have. Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. Shortages are all over the place, Miller said. Perhaps that is why they are a true bellwether county, not fully committing to one political party over the other. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. I just got on Social Security disability, because I cant work anymore. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. But thats not the picture I look at. We have vendors and suppliers we contract with, Chamberlin said. Now, its the situation with Russias invasion of Ukraine and how that might affect the world and its economies. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck-to-neck. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. Charlotte Cuthbertson is a senior reporter with The Epoch Times who primarily covers border security and the opioid crisis. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). Bernard Grofman is Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Jack W. Peltason Chair of Democracy Studies at the University of California, Irvine. She registered as a Democrat about 40 years ago and has never bothered to change her affiliation, although she voted for Trump in 2016 and plans to do the same this year. It seems that Im having to think about whos lying the least, Myers said. Richard Zulch, an Army veteran who served in Vietnam as a combat engineer from 1969 through 1971 and is the quartermaster for Veterans of Foreign Wars Post 4811 in Bowling Green, said he has been able to see the political landscape from both sides of the fence. I have not seen any division like this [before]., I believe that is because of our current president, so my main issue is that he does not stay president.. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in Texas (San Antonio) has had only one miss since 1928 (preferring the Democrat Hubert Humphrey in 1968). Why is belief in the existence of bellwether states and counties (especially the latter) so strong? It bisects six counties Hillsborough, Polk, Osceola, Orange, Seminole and Volusia but is far bigger than the . But Hamilton thinks more changes are needed. She said she almost never votes, but this year decided to vote for President Donald Trump. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County in New Mexico. We could also simply update our list of bellwether counties to reflect the new results. We need to finish putting up the wall that Trump started. Two states have announced recounts. Seasonal businesses such as ferries, dairy docks, ice cream stands, Cheesehaven, and fudge factories, are closed. In Terre Haute, 52-year-old Scott Hamilton said the main issue for him in this election is how divided the nation is; he said Trump is mostly to blame. Vigo County voters supported Trump by a 15 percent margin in 2016. Im kind of leaning toward being an independent. Shortened URL for this post:https://bit.ly/3JzjZ3j. The indirect evidence for election fraud rests on various statistical claims about the high level of improbability of certain features of the 2020 election. The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. Please read our comments policy before commenting. Jacobs believes theres more enthusiasm for Trump now than before the 2016 electionin Elk County and around the country. We have to figure out a way to control fuel prices. This includes personalizing content and advertising. They also found that high scoring counties do exhibit a geographic trend. Colleton County, South Carolina - one miss since 1968 (in 1980), perfect since 1984. The 2012 outcome seemed to be the beginning of a more robust shift to the right for the countywhile the state reelected Obama, Elk County had already moved on. Moreover, if we look at the political features of the bellwethers, we do not find them exclusively among counties that are highly politically competitive. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. Right after we saw the results of the election and that Trump had lost, we were all like, what the hell?, said Tammy, a bartender at Wee Willys Sports Pub in Marblehead. Im seeing more hate for this man than he has hated anyone, Tisdell said. Once the two 2016 presidential candidates were locked in, she knew she couldnt vote for Clinton, while Trumps promise to drain the swamp piqued her interest. What are they going to do about gun rights? he said. Bergbower suspects Trump will win in the county by a smaller margin this year, but will win nonetheless. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. Thats part of what has made it an effective bellwether, at least in recent decades, he said. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and the University of New Hampshire. She only voted once, at the urging of her husband, when they got married about 30 years ago. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. We and the rest of the states boards of elections have been directed by the Ohio Secretary of States Office to hold the election on May 3. While the Royal Drive In has been in the family for 60 years and serves a steady stream of local regulars, Martin says she wont recover until at least next summer, when she can get an extra boost, especially from traveling Canadiansas long as the border is open. Political scientists have a term for counties or states that anticipate how the rest of the country will votebellwethers. The price of gas at the Marathon gas station in Port Clinton was $3.39 a gallon on Feb. 22 whenDave Beggs, anarmy veteran and retired City of Port Clinton heavy equipment operator, pulled in. I look at the picture of what hes doing for my country.. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Miller is often faced with tough decisions in his business. I just want Trump in. In addition to Florida Gov. His message to Trump is: Shut up and quit twittering. What you need to know, summarized in one email. Being poor, I do believe that we need a stable safety net for people. I find that hard to believe. If we dont stop them, if we dont take a stand basically were moving into socialism.. Jim Hoft is the founder and editor of The Gateway Pundit, one of the top conservative news outlets in America. I dont watch TV. Haotian Chen is a Ph.D. student in political science at the University of California, Irvine. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. In new research, Bernard Grofman and Haotian Chen argue that the evidence shows that this claim is laughable. Most of the jobs up here are part-time or seasonal. Third, it lists the fraction of bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. Hes concerned a Biden administration would mean an end to fracking, higher gas prices, and utility bill hikes. With the price of gas going up, Zulch is afraid of a return to high fuel prices caused by Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana 16 years ago and that soaring costs will again hurt his business.
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