2016 bellwether counties

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Not a bad streak. Bonus points if you also keep track of the trends from 2016 to 2020. As such, the margins in bellwether counties became substantially more Republican even as the country only became a little more Republican, as you can see in the chart below. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. The Americans who almost always predict the president With a total turnout. Kerry Sheridan/AFP/Getty Images In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. Latest voter registration totals: 216,082No party registration. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. It also backed Gov. We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. However, its bellwether status is by no means guaranteed in future elections. "Biden did well in virtually all of the most populous counties in the U.S., which, along with a larger electorate explains why he defeated Donald Trump by over 7 million votes, despite carrying many fewer counties," Smith wrote. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. By Dasha Burns, Antonia Hylton, Shaquille Brewster and Benjy Sarlin. It's happened before. The fourth-largest county in the state, its home to the Green Bay Packers, which are a huge economic engine. This county, home to Reno, borders California and is at the opposite end of the state from Las Vegas. Democrats have a registration advantage in Iowas most populous county, and they are looking to run up Clintons numbers here as best as they can to offset expected losses in more conservative parts of the state. Will they vote for the winner in 2016? The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. If Trump can't win back or cut into margins in places like Prince William, Fairfax and Loudon, he likely can't win the state. A switch county is our name for a county that happens to vote for the winning party whenever there is a change of parties, ignoring how they voted for the incumbent. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention)2012: Obama 51%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 128,938Republicans: 111,374Democrats: 109,140Libertarian: 3,388. Latest voter registration totals: 618,420 No party registration. Washoe County2016 caucus winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Obama 51%, Romney 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Republican: 105,410Democrats: 102,422Unaffiliated: 53,048Others: 19,815. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up Bellwether: Watauga In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. Trump, however, needs to drive up the score in Collin (Plano). Lake County is a perpetual nail-biter. 6. You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. The American Voter's Alliance provides a great national overview with many reports, videos and detailed legal submissions. Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. Subscribe to breaking updates There were 1.3 million voters, or a quarter of all the state's voters, in just eight counties in that stretch. Trump needs to drive up the score in Cobb, which provided more votes than any other county for Mitt Romney in 2012. Green Bays Brown County voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, then Barack Obama in 2008, then flipped to Mitt Romney in 2012. The state's demographics suggest it could go blue one day. Their ability and sensitivity to dramatically switch parties in 2000, 2008 and 2016, is outstanding. Really stop reading. "There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised," they concluded. Trump won Luzerne County by nearly 20 points in 2016, outperforming Romney . I would love to see Clinton or Kaine hold a truckstop rally and appeal to those guys., Latest voter registration totals: 146,952No party registration. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa Obama won them, Trump won them, Biden lost them. Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). Team up with others in your region, and help out by But after twice voting for George W. Bush, it has since moved well to the left. For the first time "in years," says Mr Brikmanis, the Democratic National Party chose not to set up a local headquarters ahead of the November election. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in . But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. Other swing counties to watch: Monroe and Calhoun. Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-46% - 2008: McCain 52%-47%. Obama won comfortably here in 2008 but only squeaked to victory four years later. Suburban Richmonds Henrico County was once a reliable GOP stronghold it went twice for George W. Bush and backed Bob McDonnell in his 2009 gubernatorial win. It won't be enough for Trump; he also needs to likely win by more than Romney did in Brown (Green Bay) and drive up turn out in Waukesha, one of the reddest and most populous counties in the state. That includes 10 elections, including Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. Or, if you dont have enough time, how many of the top 10 switch counties, which overwhelmingly voted Democrat in 2008 (with a percentage Democrat vote over 58% ! It is whiter than the rest of the state but has a slightly higher level of college degrees, although still it's just 28 percent. Home to Tipton (population 3,199), Cedar has gone with the winner of every presidential and Senate race since 1992. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention) . [Even Though Biden Won, Republicans Enjoyed The Largest Electoral College Edge In 70 Years. "When I came here in 1989, you couldn't be elected dog catcher if you weren't a Democrat," he says. This was important for candidates since the presidential candidate's campaign would normally foot the bill. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. Other counties to watch: Remarkably, Obama won every county in this state in 2008. Here, local Republican candidates fuelled by Mr Trump's firebrand style almost wiped Democrats off the local political map. Potential canaries in the coal mine, aside from Montgomery, include Wood, south of Toledo, and Stark, home to Canton and the pro-football Hall of Fame in northeastern Ohio. From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. David Niven, a political scientist at the University of Cincinnati, also told the Associated Press that it "speaks to an evolution in American politics" rather than fraud. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. Like Texas, Utah looks like it's receded from the battleground, so we don't include it in our 13 battlegrounds. . A surge in African-American turnout helped deliver Cincinnatis Hamilton County to Obama in 2008, making him the first Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson to carry the population hub of southwest Ohio. In 2008, Obama carried this county outside Detroit by 9 percentage points but that winning margin was cut in half in 2012 with Michigan native Mitt Romney leading the GOP ticket. Lets rank these counties from highest to lowest Democrat voting percentages in the 2008 election. who in 2016 won Caswell and other rural counties in North Carolina by tapping those feelings of abandonment. Other counties to watch: Palm Beach and Miami-Dade are both places where Clinton has to drive up the score. Just how big is it? "Democrats have really not done anything for the farmers They've totally ignored the rural community. Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention), Latest voter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 112,113Democrats: 109,965Republicans: 100,540Libertarian: 3,009. 7. As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. Find a coin, and flip it, and see how long it takes to (just) get 10 heads or 10 tails in a row. If they are tipping to Clinton, it's over. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? But those states represent just 29, 18and six electoral votes, respectively. Even combined, they represent only53 votes a fraction of the 538 total electoral votesor the 270 electoral votes required to win the White House. Please keep this in mind as you continue to read through our bellwether analysis. (Go to the bottom of the page. Until this year. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: List of election bellwether counties in the United States. Eastern Iowa is often seen as Democratic turf -- the last 4 Democratic presidential nominees have won Scott County. Along with neighboring Pinellas County (St. Petersburg), the two counties include nearly a half-million registered Republicans. "This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.". To do so, the popular vote winner of each county for every presidential election from 1980 through 2016 was tabulated and mapped, yielding 19 true bellwether counties for the period. 5. At the presidential level, Republicans havent won Oakland County since 1992, though George W. Bush twice came very close. (i.e. Just a tiny fraction of them truly matter. Now, Democrats have to drive up the margin in this populous, central North Carolina county. If Clinton is going to win Utah, she will need to squeeze out as many Democrats as is possible in Salt Lake, and maybe win young people in those college towns, including Logan in Cache County (Utah State). Utah (6 electoral votes) - Likely Republican. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. It's true that both Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2020 won in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. Arizona (11 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. HereIsTheEvidence.com and ElectionEvidence.com have compiled detailed databases of hundreds of items of election fraud evidence, by state. If Clinton's winning there, it means she's hitting marks with young voters. So the question is, how many of them switched back to the Democrat party in 2020? We'll get an early indicator of Clinton's black support given this is a 7 p.m. poll close state and a place where 1-in-5 voters were black and went 93 percent for Obama. In 132 years, no president has received more votes in his run for reelection and lost. The 2020 election appears to illustrate that the partisanship that's defined politics in Washington for years has now spread to small-town America. David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, toldthe Wall Street Journal that the failure of typical bellwether counties reflects"the overall trend that we are seeing toward greater geographic polarization.". It's another one of those white, college-educated areas that could prove key to this election. Clinton wouldn't mind having a win in Harris (Houston and its suburbs of over one million voters), Nueces (Corpus Christi) and Tarrant Ft. Worth/Arlington). Were doing a lot of adult retraining, he said. After you have spent an hour trying, record the maximum streak length you achieved. In each of the past three presidential elections, Arizona has had four consistently Democratic counties (Apache, Coconino, Pima, Santa Cruz) and 11 Republican ones (Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, Yavapai and Yuma). Clinton will win Democratic Clark County, the states population hub and home to Las Vegas. Hamilton is ringed by heavily Republican Butler, Warren and Clermont counties, and it shares a border with Indiana, which is giving hope to GOP officials who think Trumps running mate, Indiana Gov. Ultimately, they are simply 19 counties and this time, 18 of them voted for the candidate who lost the election. In 2004 Kerry lost it by about 5,000 votes. The US Election Integrity Plan contains further news, analysis, videos and practical guides to getting involved. Ventura County, California - two misses since 1920 (in 1976 and 2016). Go on, look them up! Their hopes are real. Here are the top 50 counties by Democrat voting percentage in 2008: How many of these counties swung back to the Democrat party in 2020? Republicans also have to do drive up their own turnout in big population areas like Charlotte, but also have to drive up margins in lots of medium-size population counties like Union (Charlotte suburb). Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. But when word got out, Trump supporters crashed it. First, itliststotal number of votes they received Obama at 69,000,000,Trump at 74,000,000 and Biden at 81,000,000. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 480,926Republicans, 323,870Unaffiliated: 229,298Others: 65,281. No county more closely reflected Obama's wins in 2008 and 2012 than Monroe, home to Key West and the rest of the Keys. It's true that the report first showed Biden at 477 counties andTrump at 2,497 counties, though ithas since been updated to showBiden at 509 andTrump at 2,547. When is Eurovision and how do you get tickets? Demographics (84) There are numerous theories about why it happened in 2020. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. Affluent, well-educated Wake County, home to Raleigh and part of the Research Triangle, was once Republican territory. It's the wrong question. It has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 2000. Still, the state's worth watching. One of the big four suburban collar counties ringing Philadelphia and the fourth-most populous county in the state Bucks is always competitive. We know these counties are the best of the best at predicting the election winner. More than half of all Americans livein just 143 counties, per the U.S. Census Bureau. Follow the Data Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis . 2016 primary winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Romney 52%, Obama 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 82,008Republicans: 80,068Democrats: 63,257.

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